Weather Model Blog: Mixed Westerly Flow To Continue!!!

Model Run

The weather over the past few weeks has remained rather mixed and there are no signs of any pattern changes in the the next several days with a mobile westerly flow likely to remain.

This means mixed days of weather, some wet and windy, others perhaps drier but overall the likelihood is that we remain on the cooler side with no signals for periods of dry and warmer weather.

Using the GFS and ECMWF models we’ll take a look at the pressure pattern for the coming several days, starting with Friday and its not a bad day overall with high pressure building in, although the flow is a cold one so expect cool temperatures through this day.

Skip ahead to Sunday and the high tends to collapse which means we may see weather fronts skimming across the top of the high, thus, for northern areas we could see further unsettled conditions, while southern areas remain somewhat drier. Still remaining on the cool side as well.

Into next week (Tuesday) and the high has completely collapsed now and low pressure becomes the dominant pressure, at least across the northern half of the UK. The ECMWF more aggressive with this while the GFS has a ridge of high pressure clinging on to the south. The flow remains mobile however so we fully expect weather fronts to pass through west to east, with the winds again becoming a feature.

By Thursday next week the ECMWF has low pressure firmly in charge, while the GFS model continues to keep a ridge close to the south, however we dont think this ridge will be close enough to have much influence with more mixed or unsettled weather likely across the UK in general.

So the pattern overall remains westerly and mobile meaning more mixed or unsettled conditions will be likely as opposed to settled. Temperatures overall will be around average to below average at times which has been the theme throughout August and September with Central England Temperatures coming in below average. Having two months coming in below average temperature wise hasn’t happened all that often in recent years and should this month follow suit, then we may need to take notice as we may be entering a cooler phase of weather.

Leave a Reply