Weather Model Blog: Long Lasting Cold Unlikely!!

Model Run

Despite conditions turning colder this weekend with high pressure moving in across the UK, this high will most likely drift too far east to have any chance of bringing a long cold spell across the UK through next week.

The ECMWF model has been quite bullish about this high remaining close enough to bring these colder conditions to the UK, with the GFS rather having the high further east and not bringing the cold. Today’s ECMWF run has fallen back in line with the GFS, so both now agree that the high wont be close enough to bring the much talked about beast from the east. Instead a much milder southerly flow looks on the cards. The charts below highlight low pressure in blue and high pressure in red and both models now have very similar output, thus the confidence is higher.

Looking at the air temperatures at 850 hpa, there is very little cold across the continent so even if a brief easterly does come and go at times, there is no cold to ‘tap’ into. Instead the air looks relatively mild.

So to recap colder this weekend and also much drier but into next week, the high will drift too far east so lower pressure may edge closer, which will bring a return to slightly milder conditions and bring back a period of rain or showers for some.

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