Unsettled For Now, Drier & Colder For Weekend!!!

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The wet and windy conditions we are currently experiencing will continue for the next few days as low pressure continues to dominate our weather. However this will gradually change as the weekend approaches with high pressure building to the west of the UK, then drifting slowly eastwards bringing a spell of drier weather but temperatures will drop as a result, with the winds veering from NE’ly & N’ly directions.




This change in pattern is highlighted well via our high resolution charts below. Note how the blue colours get replaced by the orange colours, which represents higher pressure.

This will bring a spell of drier weather but also perhaps a return to nighttime frosts and fog may well be an issue, particularly across the eastern side of the UK, with the winds often pushing murky conditions in here. Any brighter spells are likely to come in the west. Temperatures look set to drop below average for this period.




Beyond the weekend the pattern becomes less clear although there is a strong signal for some form of block to develop to the east or north east of the UK. Its not entirely clear where the block will set up but its more than likely a connection from an active MJO phase 3. The MJO is an area of convection around the tropical equator that can send ‘ripples’ to northern hemispheric patterns. This is chart shows what a normal phase 3 pattern would bring across our region.

Note the blue and purple colours right the way across the N Atlantic, this indicating very unsettled conditions. However there are other factors at work to consider. We are currently experiencing La Nina conditions which is shown very nicely with cooler than average waters showing up well across the equatorial Pacific.

Now if we factor this in along with the active phase 3 of the MJO then reanalysis shows a block developing to the east of the UK, with lows tending to become undercut and run south of the UK, as shown below.

Now comparing recent model runs of the GEFS and EPS ensemble means, this pattern is very similar to the ones being shown below, albeit varying slightly but the cut off lows very apparent shown in blue.

Now this pattern would inevitably lead to E’ly winds and cold lovers will sit up and take notice. There is a slight issue however, there is no serious cold to tap into so the uppers are not really that cold. Temperatures closer to the surface will be cold that’s a given with any E’ly wind in winter but as far deep cold, there simply is none to tap into as yet. The longer this pattern remains, the better chance there will be of a cold plunge of air wrapping round the block. The big question is will this pattern last long enough and that answer isn’t clear as yet. So E’ly winds are possible but a beast from the east isn’t for now.

 

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