Latest Model Blog: All About The West!!!

Model Run

The latest 12z data is out from the ECMWF and GFS models and there is good agreement, albeit broadly, for the upcoming weather pattern across the UK over the next several days.

The main theme between the models is a W’ly one. This means the weather will generally come from the west, which more often than not is an unsettled pattern with rain and showers likely, accompanied by blustery winds and this pattern is no exception. Temperatures will vary with interchanging air masses although its likely to stay on the cooler or colder side more often than not.  Pressure snapshots for both models are below with valid dates.

Right at the very end of the run we have a change from the GFS, which sees high pressure build over the UK, the ECM not seeing this however and remaining in the westerly flow.

The building heights on the GFS output is one to monitor however, as a blocking pattern may develop beyond mid month as a result of a sudden stratospheric warming event. Interesting times ahead for sure.

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